Amateurish Assumptions


For some reason I feel compelled to wade into the presidential prediction pool. To borrow a phrase from my friend Sharron Angle, what looks like a hot tub ends up being a cesspool. I don’t do political prognostications for a living; I doubt more than a hundred people really care about my political opinions. I do this out of some sick pleasure, one that can only be cured through expensive therapy, barbaric shock treatments, or the laying on of hands.

I wonder if Benny Hinn is available.

At any rate, my presidential prediction outcome is actually with the prevailing political punditry “wisdom.” I am predicting Mitt Romney is going to win by a landslide, both in the popular vote and the Electoral College. I know right? Talk about going out on a limb.

Using my highly inaccurate and unscientific, albeit top secret, prognostication formula (which means I’m guessing), I predict Mitt Romney will win the popular vote 52% to 47% for Barack Obama. What happened to the other 1%? What do you think?

It is the Electoral College that had me actually doing some research, but I am predicting that Mitt Romney will have won enough states by 7pm Central time (when the polls close in the Florida Panhandle where I live), that he will be declared the winner by at least FOXNews. The others will come along after they hear that ACORN, SEIU, and the Obama attorneys say there is no hope of a second term.

Now I’m about to get real serious. I’m actually going to predict which states will go for Romney and their total electoral votes.

New Hampshire          4
Pennsylvania              20
Virginia                       13
North Carolina           15
Florida                         29
Ohio                             18
Wisconsin                    10
Iowa                               6

Those eight states alone gives Romney 115 electoral votes and with West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah as safe Republican states, that is an additional 235 electoral votes for a total of 350 Electoral College votes.

If I wanted to get way beyond myself I could have thrown in the sure pile Nevada and Colorado for an additional 15 votes (total 365 votes) and if my vertigo was active I could have heaped on Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon for 26 more, which means Romney would end up with 391 Electoral College votes.

I’m really tempted to go all out but like the Nissan commercial I hear a horn honking somewhere in the background so I’ll keep it “safe” predicting a 350 vote total.

So there you have it! You heard here first if you don’t read Dick Morris’ column.

If we're both wrong please send all your hate mail and ridicule notes to cuz he’s the one who does it for a living.

Me? I’m the guy in need of shock treatment.